Who arrives, from where, and how they entered
| Afghanistan — Taliban Aug 2021 | +1 yr |
| Sudan — civil war Apr 2023 | +2 yr |
| Syria — Assad falls Dec 2024 | −67% |
| Albania — returns deal Dec 2022 | −93% |
Conflict onset to peak runs 1–2 years. Suppressive events act inside one. No UK policy intervention in the event study moved anything more than 45%.