Migration analysis

Decisions

What the asylum system decides, and who can be returned

OutcomesReturnabilityAfter the decision
01

Outcomesi

What happens to 187,779 arrivals2018–2025i
IER_D02–D05
95%
claim asylumi
60%
granted at initial decisioni
19%
NRM referral, 2025 cohorti
4%
returned since 2018i
24
Channel deaths 2025i
84.8
people per boat, Aug 2026i
Claim-year cohorts: initial decision vs latest positionafter appealsi
Asy_D04 · cohort followed to latest position
Backlog by wait lengthi
Asy_D03 · 96,259 rows
Grant rate by nationality2023–26, claims >500i
Asy_D02 · 142,577 rows
Illegal-entry cohort outcomesi
IER_D03
Detention: reason for leavingi
Det_D03 · 121,795 rows
Detention lengthi
Age assessmentsi
Age_D01
02

Returnabilityi

2025 arrivals by enforced-return statusi
36,045 of 41,472 total 2025 arrivals matched (87%) · full 206-country guide · Country Returns Guide
Arriving nationalitiesi
NationalityEnforced20242025
Actual returns from the UK, by nationalityi
Home Office Ret_D01 · all return types, all nationalities
03

After the decisioni

Households with a former asylum seeker support needhomelessness dutiesi
MHCLG statutory homelessness
Leaving asylum support2024-25i
The 56-day move-on pilotbefore vs afteri
Some of the change is expected by design. Not a causal impact estimate.
National Insurance registrationsYE March 2026, by regioni
Address at registration. Not current residence, and not a migration count.
Top local authoritiesi
Universal Credit caseload by immigration statusFeb 2026i
Share of the caseload. Not a take-up rate for any status group.
Jobs in the sectors enforcement targetsQ1 2026i