The crossing — UK immigration and Channel crossings

Gatei

Daily arrivals vs significant wave heighti

From yeari

Copernicus Marine VHM0, Dover Strait, 3-hourly · Home Office daily series · wave data to 30 Apr 2026

By wave bandi

H_m0	Days	Arrivals	Per day	Active

Monthly totalsrows = year, cols = monthi

Which sea metric predicts a crossingr, 3,042 daysi

Mean 3-hour windows below 0.5 m: 5.1 on crossing days, 1.0 on days with none.

Arrivals by the day's calmest windowi

Daily minimum H_m0 · above 1.2 m: 0 arrivals across 274 days

Year ending Aprili

Threshold 0.6 m analyst-set · Home Office crossing-conditions note

Met Office RAG day mix, monthly52 monthsi

Met Office RAG assessment via Home Office

Rhythmi

Weekly arrivals, preventions and policy eventsi

Home Office weekly summary · preventions are French operational estimates, from Apr 2024 · 26 policy events

Prevention share of attemptsi

OIC disruptions per quarteri

NCA / Home Office OIC tables, 2023 Q1 onward

Capabilityi

Boats by number of people aboardyear ending Aprili

Crossing-conditions SB_02 · event-level boat data

People per boat, against equipment erai

Documented seizuresi

Date	Where	Boats	Engines

Equipment and sourcing trendi

Period	Finding	Tier

NCA / Europol / Home Office · tier A official, tier B journalism retained as lead only

Supply chaini

Entities in the public recordi

Entity	Type	Based	Role	Status

UK sanctions list (GIM references) and the equipment dataset · inclusion indicates a public source link, not an allegation, unless the status column states otherwise

Crossing price evidencei

Payment typologiesi

Document fraud & digitali

Equipment aggregate totalsdo not sum with event rows — they overlapi