01
By migrant typei
In March 2026, 55% wanted immigration reduced overall — and 43% wanted more nurses, 41% more doctors. The same people, the same questionnaire.
Net preference by migrant grouphover to isolatei
British Future / Ipsos Immigration Attitudes Tracker, Waves 16–19 · ~3,000 GB adults per wave · Waves 16–18 parsed from the published computer tables, Wave 19 from the tracker spreadsheet
The gap is closing from both ends. The spread between the most and least wanted group fell from 67 points in February 2024 to 38 in March 2026. Nurses fell from +38 to +25; bankers rose from -29 to -13; students from -15 to -3. People are becoming less discriminating between migrant types, not more or less opposed overall.
Wave 17 ran through Southport. Fieldwork was 29 July to 12 August 2024. The attack fell on the first day and the disorder that followed ran to 7 August, so this is an in-shock measurement rather than a post-shock one. Across it, nurses moved +38 to +38 and doctors +37 to +36. This is a repeated cross-section, not a panel, so it cannot show who changed — but the shock did not move these preferences much, which is what an account based on attention rather than persuasion would predict.
02
The headlinei
Preferred overall level, by wavei
British Future / Ipsos tracker Waves 16–19
Reduce runs 52%, 55%, 57%, 55% across the four waves. Two years, an election, a change of government and a national disorder event, and the line is close to flat.