The share of Britons naming immigration as a most important issue has swung by a factor of four since 2018. Over the same period, the share wanting immigration reduced has barely shifted. These are two different variables and a model that conflates them will miss the one that moves.
24 August 2026Feb 2024 – Mar 2026Public sources throughout
Most important issue facing Britain% naming the issuei
Ipsos Issues Index, monthly · transcribed from the published trend tables · provisional: three months are missing and it should be checked against source before it anchors anything
Immigration runs from 5% in 2020-04 to 26% in 2023-09. The collapse in 2020 is Covid displacing everything else; the climb through 2022 and 2023 tracks small-boat arrivals and the asylum backlog. Attention is volatile in a way that opinion is not.
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Why the distinction mattersi
Set the two series beside each other. Between 2018 and 2026 the share wanting immigration reduced moved within a few points of 55%. Over a comparable period the share naming immigration a top issue moved from 5% to 26% — a factor of 5. If political behaviour follows attention rather than position, then the variable that explains change is the one most polling headlines do not report.
What this does not show. Two series moving differently is not evidence that one causes the other, and neither series can say which individuals changed. Establishing that needs panel data following the same people across waves. That work is the next stage and it is not done.